My fellow denizens of “Teh Intartubez”, I am going to give you an extremely valuable piece of information today. One which will help you in any election, for any office, in any country that allows voting. Like Ron Popeil’s dream-come-true, this information will slice, dice, circumsize, sanitize, sterilize, homogenize all of the bullshit out there and is guaranteed never to rust, bust, combust, or collect dust or your money back.
I can’t take credit for this information, the inspiration came from a debate with Ronald Reagan many years ago.
If you’ll remember, this debate effectively gut-punched Carter’s campaign. Jimmy “Nobel Prize” Carter, who many consider to be the best EX-President in American history, is a good man who advocated many positions that are central to today’s campaign. Health Care, Energy Independence, Education were all key points in Carter’s campaign message, yet Reagan beat him in the general election like a pinata filled with cupcakes at Rush Limbaugh’s birthday party.
Why?
“Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago?”
It’s JUST THAT EASY! (now do you see why I use the Popeil reference?)
Ask any sane human being and you’ll hear the conventional wisdom that promises made by politicians aren’t worth the airwaves that they travel on. We all know that politicians lie. We all know that they’d sell their mothers for another 4 year fix. We know this, yet the public insists on getting swept up in campaign speeches and debates where nobody remembers the salient points, but everyone parrots a clever soundbite.
When was the last time you checked a voting record in detail? If Senator Whatshisname “voted against the troops”, did he do it because there was too much pork included in the bill? Or was it because another version of the same funding bill was circulating in a House committee and he preferred that version instead? Nuance may not sell with Joe Sixpack, but it is a fact of political life. Sometimes politicians have to hold their noses and vote for things that will get them in deep shit with their constituents. That’s how the game is played. If reporters, who are paid to do this sort of work, can’t keep up with all of the nuance, how can the American voter be expected to do the job well?
Some folks take a shortcut and listen to their friendly neighborhood radio talk show host. Others hang out on their favorite political blog among like-minded individuals where their preconceptions are reinforced by a sympathetic audience.
Same sheep, different color wool.
The great thing about most elections is that they are not held in a vacuum. There is always an incumbent and there is always a challenger. If you like the way things are going, you vote for the incumbent. If you don’t, then you vote for the other guy. Simple? Yes. Your job is to form an intelligent opinion on the state of the world and make your decision. It’s not that hard.
Why have Republicans had a stranglehold on the Presidency since 1980? (well, except for the Clinton years, which I’ll get to in a moment) The economy was booming, we were top-dog in the global kennel, and the vast majority of us were thanking whatever divine providence was in vocal range that we were fortunate enough to live in the U-S-of-by-god-A. Back when uttering the phrase “I’m an American” in a foreign country earned you a certain amount of deference, or even a free drink, depending on where you travelled in the world.
Try walking into a bar in Europe these days and loudly proclaiming “I’m an American!”. At best, you’ll just be sniggered at.
How did Clinton break up the Republican streak? “It’s the economy, stupid!” The economic recession in the early 90′s got everyone refocused on the question of “Are you better off today…” and it cost Bush the election. 4 years later, when things had improved largely on their own, the same question kept Clinton in office for another 4 years despite galvanized opposition from the talk-radio crowd.
But Grim, you ask…
“What about 2004?”
We were still reeling from the 9/11 attacks in 2004. We had just gone into Iraq the previous year and stomped the holy hell out of Saddam’s army. We were fresh off of “Mission Accomplished” when election season came in. The economy appeared to be rebounding, and Americans were disinclined to change direction at that time. A very good argument could be made that 9/11 guaranteed Bush an 8 year term since the American public rarely votes for a challenger in time of war (or at least a war that we appear to be winning). Were we “better off” in 2004 than in 2000? No, but being unable to see the forest for the trees, the American public had the perception that better days were on the way really soon.
Even if Barack Obama spends his entire presidency trying to push through his campaign promises, it is a virtual certainty that he will fail to get everything he wants. Even if John McCain is such a Maverick that he fights every bit of pork-laden legislation that crosses his desk, it is a virtual certainty that he will trend in the same political direction as his predecessor. The only thing you can count on is that Obama will be a change of direction, and McCain will “stay the course” politically speaking.
So I put it to you again…
“Are you better off now than you were 8 years ago?”
